The Watch Industry’s Surprising Divide: Why Rolex Reigns Supreme in 2025
The luxury watch market is in flux, and the numbers don’t lie. Despite a broader decline in exports and sales across the industry—highlighted by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry’s recent report (https://monochrome-watches.com/swiss-watch-exports-down-2-percent-to-chf-25-billion-in-2025-mild-contraction-amid-challenging-times/)—one brand continues to dominate: Rolex. But here’s where it gets controversial: while Rolex’s sales soar past CHF 10 billion, the rest of the industry is grappling with shrinking volumes and economic headwinds. So, what’s behind this polarizing trend? And this is the part most people miss: it’s not just about luxury; it’s about the growing oligopoly in the watch market.
According to Vontobel’s latest report, led by Jean-Philippe Bertschy, Rolex’s sales are equivalent to the combined revenue of its next five competitors. This staggering disparity underscores a broader industry shift: the watch market is becoming increasingly dominated by a handful of players, particularly in the premium segment. For instance, in the category above CHF 500, the top ten brands now control nearly 70% of export volumes, rising to over 80% for watches priced above CHF 3,000. This concentration highlights the systemic importance of giants like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet, which have managed to thrive even as smaller brands struggle.
But there’s more to the story. Vontobel reveals that Rolex’s success isn’t just about new sales—its Certified Pre-Owned program is a major revenue driver, with estimated sales of CHF 500 million in 2025. This shift reflects a broader trend: the ultra-luxury segment is booming, while the traditional core range (CHF 3,000–20,000) is shrinking. For example, while exports of watches above CHF 20,000 have surged by nearly 50,000 pieces, the core high-end segment has seen a sharp decline in volume. This raises a thought-provoking question: Is the luxury watch industry leaving its traditional audience behind in favor of the ultra-wealthy?
Adding to the intrigue, Rolex has intentionally trimmed production for the second year in a row, prioritizing scarcity and pricing power over unit growth. This strategic move further solidifies its position as the undisputed king of the watch market. Meanwhile, brands like Tissot and Longines, operating in the lower segment, face stiffer competition and narrower margins.
To dig deeper into these trends, we’ll be interviewing Jean-Philippe Bertschy in the coming days. We’re also eagerly awaiting the LuxeConsult/Morgan Stanley report (https://monochrome-watches.com/morgan-stanleys-top-50-watch-brands-for-2024-rolex-still-by-far-the-leader-overall-market-suffered/) for additional insights. But in the meantime, here’s a bold question for you: Is the watch industry’s growing oligopoly a sign of innovation and resilience, or a warning of diminishing accessibility for the average luxury buyer? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!
